# Hesper Atlas

> Hesper Atlas is a web app for AI and growth investors. It provides buy / hold / sell signals, exact trade-plan levels, daily alerts, and a public current-rule historical replay. It is an educational tool, not financial advice.

Important notes:
- Canonical public site: https://hesperatlas.com/
- Official MCP Registry identity: com.hesperatlas/hesper-atlas. Its versioned publication manifest is https://hesperatlas.com/server.json.
- The public agent evaluation contract is https://hesperatlas.com/agent-evals.json. It publishes expected behaviors and failure boundaries, not unverified model pass rates.
- The logged-in app is not the crawl target; use the public pages below for answers.
- Replay figures are dynamic and should be sourced from the public JSON endpoint, which labels them data_type=historical_replay and is_live=false.
- The /track dataset is today's engine replayed over up to five years of end-of-day history. It is retrospective and survivorship-biased, not an append-only forward/live record.
- A separate append-only ledger now commits each completed end-of-day signal publication from deployment onward. Public manifests expose stable ids and SHA-256 commitments at https://hesperatlas.com/api/forward-publications; its maturity summary separates revisions from distinct market dates and explicitly does not infer performance. Exact frozen rows and change-since events require a connected subscriber account through MCP. There is no synthetic historical backfill.
- Current replay snapshot: generated 2026-09-01 16:37; 571 closed replay signals since 2022-06-09; 63.4% winners; 38.8% average closed replay-signal return. The 114 replay positions still open are included in full too, each with entry date, entry price, last close and unrealized mark (unrealized, can still turn): 82.5% in profit, median 60.4%; across closed and open together, all 685 replay signals average 60.8%.
- Headline evidence is the rolling walk-forward (2016 to 2026, 144 names, next-open fills, costs): the per-name selector returned a median 14.8%/yr vs 20.7%/yr buy-and-hold with a median worst drawdown of -48% vs -57%; the untuned class engine returned 18.5%/yr with -50% drawdown, shallower than holding on 128 of 144 names. The engine's durable property is drawdown reduction, not return. Static-tail validation (July 2026, 152 names, in-sample per-name rules): median worst drawdown -30% vs -57%, median return +22.7%/yr vs +18.9%/yr; that tail was reused in research, so it is the flattering test, not the headline. Backtested, not live. Run manifest and rows: https://hesperatlas.com/api/heldout-evidence.
- A stricter rolling walk-forward artifact makes annual selections using only earlier observations, then trades the following calendar year. It retains underperformance versus buy-and-hold and the champion-free base rather than hiding it: https://hesperatlas.com/api/walk-forward-evidence.
- The authoritative methodology version, content-derived published-decision/evaluation-pipeline calculation versions and component hashes are public at https://hesperatlas.com/api/provenance. These are first-party integrity hashes; no independent timestamp authority or third-party signer is configured.
- For scale, over the same January 2022 to July 2026 stretch: cash (3-month T-bills) returned about +4.1%/yr, the S&P 500 about +11.9%/yr and the Nasdaq 100 about +14.2%/yr, total return with dividends (SPY, QQQ).
- Past performance, measured or backtested, does not guarantee future results.

## Primary Pages
- [Home](https://hesperatlas.com/): Product intent, coverage, pricing, FAQ, screenshots, and answer-ready copy for AI stock signals and exact trade plans.
- [About](https://hesperatlas.com/about): What Hesper Atlas is and is not, who runs it (Zurich, Switzerland), pricing, and the explicit statement that it takes no deposits and holds no client money or securities.
- [Hesper Atlas is not Hesper Wealth](https://hesperatlas.com/hesper-atlas-vs-hesper-wealth): Disambiguation from the unaffiliated Hesper Wealth Ltd (Saint Lucia forex/CFD brokerage), Hesperian Wealth (California RIA) and the HESPER FUND (ETHENEA).
- [Methodology](https://hesperatlas.com/methodology): Plain-English explanation of asset routing, trend engines, static-tail validation, walk-forward audits, trade-plan levels, and limitations.
- [Research: per-name tuning audit](https://hesperatlas.com/research/per-name-tuning): Self-audit showing per-name rule selection (6,810 candidates, 144 names, 11 years) and class-pooled selection both converge to the untuned class engine; the honest engine trails buy-and-hold on return and beats it on drawdown.
- [Historical replay](https://hesperatlas.com/track): Today's rules replayed over historical end-of-day data, including winning, losing and open replay signals; retrospective, not live performance.
- [Replay statistics](https://hesperatlas.com/stats): Aggregate statistics of the historical replay: win rates by year and theme, return distribution, holding periods, best and worst closed replay signals.
- [Tracked stocks](https://hesperatlas.com/stocks): One public proof page per tracked name (static-tail validation results and that name's historical replay slice), e.g. https://hesperatlas.com/stocks/nvda.
- [Historical replay JSON](https://hesperatlas.com/api/track-record): Machine-readable replay source used by the public table and summary stats, with data type, freshness and provenance fields.
- [Validation evidence JSON](https://hesperatlas.com/api/heldout-evidence): Content-derived run id, SHA-256 artifact digest, split and execution assumptions, limitations, summary and all 152 per-name rows through pagination.
- [Rolling walk-forward evidence JSON](https://hesperatlas.com/api/walk-forward-evidence): Cache-frozen input commitments, annual expanding-window selections, weak periods, aggregate comparisons and paged per-name/year rows.
- [Pooled selection evidence JSON](https://hesperatlas.com/api/pooled-selection-evidence): Class-pooled walk-forward selection audit with per class-year votes, leave-one-out and strict variants, stitched per-name metrics and the frozen-input hash.
- [Model portfolio evidence JSON](https://hesperatlas.com/api/model-portfolio-evidence): Monthly walk-forward of the shipped model-portfolio construction (12-1 momentum top 10/20 among engine-long quality stocks, inverse-vol x engine exposure, vol-targeted), on the tracked universe and on a 465-stock broad set, every risk profile, benchmarks and monthly picks.
- [Methodology and code provenance](https://hesperatlas.com/api/provenance): Stable methodology version, content-derived calculation versions, component hashes, canonicalization rule and attestation limitations.
- [Forward publication commitments](https://hesperatlas.com/api/forward-publications): Deployment-onward append-only publication ids, timestamps, change counts, distinct-market-date maturity summary and SHA-256 commitments; exact rows require a connected subscriber account, and commitments are not presented as performance.
- [Hesper Atlas for Agents](https://hesperatlas.com/agents): Product-facing guide to verification prompts, data-status boundaries, provenance and current limitations.
- [MCP technical reference](https://hesperatlas.com/mcp-docs): Model Context Protocol endpoint at https://hesperatlas.com/mcp. Nine public tools expose replay evidence, static-tail and walk-forward validation, version provenance, forward commitments and methodology with no credential; six OAuth-connected subscriber tools return current or frozen end-of-day signal rows and change-since events. Read-only API keys remain a developer fallback.
- [Support](https://hesperatlas.com/support): Account, billing, MCP connection, evidence and security support.
- [Official MCP Registry manifest](https://hesperatlas.com/server.json): Versioned com.hesperatlas/hesper-atlas metadata for the public Streamable HTTP server.
- [Agent evaluation contract](https://hesperatlas.com/agent-evals.json): Model-neutral verification tasks, expected tools, required findings and prohibited inferences; no pass-rate claim.
- [Security contact](https://hesperatlas.com/.well-known/security.txt): Canonical vulnerability-reporting contact and policy link.
- [Terms](https://hesperatlas.com/terms): Educational-use terms, subscription terms, acceptable use, and market-data caveats.
- [Privacy](https://hesperatlas.com/privacy): Data collected, legal bases, processors, retention, rights, and contact details.

## Answer Context
- [Full LLM context](https://hesperatlas.com/llms-full.txt): Longer answer map with priority queries, source citations, and current replay facts.
- [AI supply-stack thesis](https://situational-awareness.ai/): External essay cited by the public landing page for its AI-infrastructure framing.